Blog by Lasse Stensgaard, TriOraklet.

You only need to look at last year's women’s race in Kona to understand how difficult it is to predict the winner of Ironman Hawaii. Meltdowns from overheating can happen to everybody who is willing to push the limits to go for the win. 

Even though there is quite a few potential winners, the history book of past Kona champions, follow a certain pattern:

1) Has won the race before or been in top four last year (2024)

2) Typically not the same athlete (MPRO), who won the biggest European races in June and July (Roth/ Ironman Frankfurt) 

3) Experience and strength tops youth and raw speed - the average age of both male and female champions is between 31 and 35! 

Now let’s have a look at potential FUSION winners from this year‘s lineup, if we follow this narrative:

Sam Laidlow

1) He hasn’t won in Hawaii before, but is nonetheless, the 2023 Ironman world champion (Nice), but also fits the criteria by his remarkable second place finish on debut back in 2022* For obvious reasons, It’s a bit more tricky to rely on most resent Hawaii performances (the shift between Nice and Kona 2022-2025)!

2) Winning Challenge Roth while casually erasing the previous world record, is clearly not the norm for a Kona Contender! But remember, Sam Laidlow more than anyone is a huge fanboy, and student of the greatest champions in the sport! He is well aware, that the world record in Roth followed up by winning Kona, would send him straight into the history books next to Jan Frodeno’s iconic 2016 season 

3) Despite his young age (27) , it would be foolish to suggest that Sam lacks experience. He has been doing triathlons since he was four, and raced his first Ironman when he was 18! 

Magnus Ditlev

1) Obviously qualifies with flying colors as the runner up for the Hawaii Ironman title in 2024! Also worth noting that Magnus literally dragged himself back into the race after overheating on the bike. That kind of mentality is what creates a Kona champion! 

2) Because of illness, we never saw Magnus in peak shape during the summer! Hopefully that means he has less fatigue and more fuel in the tank, when racing gets really tough in Kona! He is reported to be in excellent shape, after a five week altitude camp. Furthermore he has openly stated that he is the most aerodynamically optimized athlete of the entire pro field! 

3) He’s not even 30 yet, but on more than one occasion journalists have described Magnus as “wise beyond his years”! 

Menno Koolhaas: 

1) Fifth on debut in Hawaii 2024 is more impressive than people might realize at first glance. 95% of the professional athletes, don't even come close to a result like that in their entire career! 

2) With his 4th place in Roth, Menno perfectly fits the pattern of an athlete who is bound to do really well in Kona! One of the first guys out of the water, holding his own on the bike and then a lightning fast marathon (2.30.33) - second fastest overall! Speaking of historic patterns, fast runners on THAT level tend to do really really well in Kona! 

3) Menno is 30 yrs old, just slightly younger than the typical Kona winner! He has a really good chance to become the first Dutchman ever (MPRO)to stand on the podium in Hawaii!

Katrine Græsbøll Christensen

1) To have a high level endurance background like Katrine (Kayaker) is a bit of a cheat-code to the Kona rulebook! finishing 11th in Hawaii last year, just three years into her triathlon journey, is impressive in itself! But her athletic development since then has improved so quickly, that aiming for a top 10 finish, almost feels a bit underwhelming! 

2) Katrine has gone up against last year’s Hawaii podium on numerous occasions throughout the season, and fully matched them all on the bike and run! She has also been so consistent in her performances, that she at the moment ranks fifth in the PRO Series, but probably will finish higher, if things go to plan in Kona! 

3) Her birth certificate might say 29, but becoming a mother in her early 20s has given Katrine an aura of maturity and self-reliance you would typically associate with people in their mid to late 30s! Katrine knows how to keep calm under stress, like she demonstrated in Ironman South Africa this year. After breaking her cockpit and losing 14 minutes, she still managed to run her way into second place and secure her Kona qualification! 

We would also like to send a big shout out to this amazing trio!

Kristian Høgenhaug

Danish powerhouse Kristian Høgenhaug is racing his fourth Kona. Well-known for his aggressive racing style on two wheels, Høgenhaug has an excellent track record of riding shoulder-to-shoulder with the absolute best cyclists in the sport. He proved this with an astonishing 3:54:03 best bike split at the Pro series race at IM Texas earlier this year. In Kona 2024 he fought his way to a brilliant 9th-place finish and he has already proven he has the formula to crack the top tier of full-distance racing. 

However, 2026 has been a year of transition. After becoming a dad in late 2025, he has spent the season finding a new balance and structure between elite training and family life. Because of this shifting dynamic, Høgenhaug heads to the Big Island with a refreshed mindset: to maximize whatever his body can deliver on race day, while soaking up the atmosphere and using his deep well of experience to learn even more from the iconic Hawaii course.

Daniel Bækkegård 

We are not the only ones who are thrilled to see Daniel back in Kona! His last-minute qualification in Ironman Kalmar sent waves of Social Media euphoria through the global triathlon community! Injury kept him sidelined for the first part of 2026, but just as negative thoughts  were creeping in - along came the Norwegians! Iden, Blummenfeld and Stornes (all Ironman World Champions between  2021-2025) flew to Daniels Home in St Moritz for an extended training Camp. A proper dose of  “The Norwegian Method” (threshold work-ethics + lots of  banter) not only helped Daniel back on his (racing) feet, it also reignited his dream of returning to Hawaii! 

Tristan Olij

The Flying Dutchman has massively improved within the last year! Aside from podium finishes in Challenge Almere and Ironman South Africa, he also finished 10th in Roth, arguably the strongest pro field of 2026! Tristan made his Hawaii debut two years ago with 22nd Pl.  but with his current form and excellent running ( 2.37 marathon in Roth) in mind, he might finish closer to top 10 than top 20!